Hungary’s central bank (MNB) is widely expected to keep its base rate steady at 6.50% today, with no changes to the overnight rate corridor. This move aligns with the central bank’s current guidance, which signals an extended period of policy stability.
According to Commerzbank FX strategist Tatha Ghose, forward markets reflect little expectation of imminent easing — only a theoretical 10bp rate cut is priced in over the next six months. However, any eventual move would more likely come in the form of a 25bp cut, underlining the market’s low confidence in near-term monetary easing.
Policy Outlook: Tight Conditions Likely to Persist
The MNB is expected to reaffirm the need for tight monetary policy in its statement, highlighting the importance of maintaining financial stability and positive real interest rates. At the press conference, Governor Mihály Varga is likely to stress that inflation expectations and financial discipline remain central to the bank’s policy framework.
Varga has previously pointed out that household and corporate inflation expectations remain high—around 8%, well above the MNB’s target. Persistent increases in services and food prices also indicate that inflationary pressures are still present. The Monetary Policy Council (MPC) has flagged that corporate pricing, outside of regulated sectors, appears to remain excessive.
MNB Resists Political Pressure, Supports HUF Strength
Despite ongoing government pressure to lower rates, the MPC is expected to hold its ground, likely maintaining tight conditions through December—and possibly until Q1 2026.
Varga’s cautious stance has helped shore up investor confidence in the MNB’s independence. As a result, the Hungarian forint (HUF) has significantly outperformed the Polish zloty (PLN) this year. Commerzbank expects this trend to continue, particularly as political instability weighs more heavily on Poland’s outlook.
