The AUD/USD pair edged lower on Friday, trading near 0.6500 and down 0.25% on the day, as investors adopted a cautious stance ahead of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report due later in the session. Despite improving sentiment surrounding US–China trade relations, the Australian Dollar (AUD) struggled to hold gains, with traders also eyeing an upcoming speech by Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Michele Bullock on Monday for fresh policy cues.
Trade optimism offers limited lift to the Aussie
Markets welcomed signs of easing trade tensions between Washington and Beijing, which could lend mild support to the Aussie, often seen as a proxy for Chinese economic prospects. The two nations are set to begin a fifth round of high-level trade talks in Malaysia on Friday, featuring Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, and Trade Representative Jamieson Greer.
Investors are hopeful for progress ahead of next Thursday’s meeting between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, scheduled on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Summit. Discussions are expected to cover a broad range of topics, including soybean trade resumption and nuclear arms control.
US inflation in focus
Attention now turns to the September US CPI report, expected to show an annual increase of 3.1%, up from 2.9% in August. The core CPI, which excludes food and energy costs, is also forecast to rise 3.1% year-on-year.
A stronger-than-expected reading could reignite concerns over tariff-driven inflation, potentially strengthening the US Dollar (USD) and reducing the likelihood of a 25-basis-point rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in December. Conversely, a softer inflation print would likely bolster expectations for a near-term policy easing.
Market outlook
For now, volatility in AUD/USD remains subdued as traders await clearer macroeconomic signals. The RBA Governor’s remarks on Monday could offer further insights into the central bank’s inflation outlook and monetary policy trajectory heading into year-end.
Australian Dollar Performance Today
| Base Currency | USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | — | 0.04% | 0.05% | 0.23% | 0.21% | 0.25% | 0.15% | 0.10% |
| EUR | -0.04% | — | 0.01% | 0.20% | 0.18% | 0.22% | 0.11% | 0.06% |
| GBP | -0.05% | -0.01% | — | 0.18% | 0.16% | 0.20% | 0.09% | 0.04% |
| JPY | -0.23% | -0.20% | -0.18% | — | -0.02% | 0.02% | -0.09% | -0.14% |
| CAD | -0.21% | -0.18% | -0.16% | 0.02% | — | 0.03% | -0.07% | -0.13% |
| AUD | -0.25% | -0.22% | -0.20% | -0.02% | -0.03% | — | -0.10% | -0.16% |
| NZD | -0.15% | -0.11% | -0.09% | 0.09% | 0.07% | 0.10% | — | -0.06% |
| CHF | -0.10% | -0.06% | -0.04% | 0.14% | 0.13% | 0.16% | 0.06% | — |
The heat map shows percentage changes among major currencies. The base currency is listed on the left, and the quote currency along the top row. For instance, selecting AUD (base) against USD (quote) shows the AUD/USD pair down 0.25% today.
