The Australian Dollar (AUD) is expected to consolidate in the near term within a 0.6465–0.6530 range, following last week’s sharp decline, according to FX strategists Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia of UOB Group.
Short-Term View (24 Hours):
On Friday, UOB had anticipated further AUD weakness but noted that oversold conditions might limit losses. However, the AUD fell more sharply than expected, hitting a low of 0.6472.
The pair has since opened slightly higher, and with downward momentum now easing, UOB expects the AUD/USD to trade sideways today, likely staying within the 0.6465–0.6530 range.
Medium-Term View (1–3 Weeks):
UOB had previously highlighted that bearish momentum was building and saw increased risk of a breakdown below 0.6555, which materialized. The currency then tumbled past the 0.6520 support, reaching 0.6472.
Analysts maintain a bearish outlook, with the next downside target seen at 0.6440, as long as the strong resistance at 0.6575 holds. This resistance level was adjusted lower from 0.6615 last week, reflecting the deepening bearish pressure.
Key Technical Levels:
- Support: 0.6465, then 0.6440
- Resistance: 0.6530, strong resistance at 0.6575
Conclusion:
While AUD/USD may stabilize in the short term, the broader trend still favors the downside. Only a break above 0.6575 would suggest that bearish momentum has faded.
