UOB Group analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia expect the Australian Dollar to remain range-bound in the near term, with AUD/USD likely trading between 0.6450 and 0.6510. While the broader trend still points lower, they note that a deeper decline would require a decisive daily close below 0.6440, which could open the door to 0.6405.
Short-term outlook
The analysts acknowledged that the AUD fell more sharply than anticipated. Although they previously expected consolidation between 0.6485 and 0.6530, the pair extended losses to 0.6451 before rebounding to end the day at 0.6479 (-0.46%). Given this bounce, they see no strong pickup in downside momentum and expect trading to stay confined within 0.6450–0.6510 today.
1–3 week outlook
Downward momentum has been gradually building since earlier in the week. The break below 0.6460 reinforces the bearish bias, but the analysts stress that a close below 0.6440 is needed to confirm a move toward 0.6405. This view holds as long as the pair stays below 0.6525, now seen as the key resistance level.
